Families in China are for the first time supporting more elderly people than children, the country’s government has said.
Official data released in the last week show the ratio of China’s dependent elderly people compared to the working age population rose to 23% last year, overtaking the figure for children, which stood at 22%.
The numbers are closely watched for signs of how China’s shrinking workforce will impact both the world’s second largest economy and global growth as a whole.
The latest figures mark a significant milestone as China grapples with an ageing population that could have implications for families, pensions and healthcare spending, analysts say.
China has been preparing for a growing proportion of elderly people in recent years, while urging younger generations to get married and for couples to have more children.
The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics show there are now more than 223 million people in China aged 65 and above, accounting for nearly 16% of the country’s total population.
At the same time there are about 213 million children aged 14 and under.
No official commentary was published with the statistics. But Chinese state-controlled news outlet Global Times wrote that the nation’s “entry into a moderately ageing society” is the result of a mix of factors, including the “size of past birth cohorts” and longer life expectancy.
The shift could place added strain on pension, healthcare and long-term care systems, while also creating opportunities in the so-called silver economy that caters to older consumers, the newspaper said.
“It reflects a historical trend in demographic development rather than a short-term phenomenon,” Global Times quoted one researcher as saying.
The demographic shift is “symbolic” and could suggest more public spending will move from families and schools to pensions and healthcare, said Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.
It may also pose a challenge to the country’s ambitions, as it could limit its economic growth as well as people’s spending power, said National University of Singapore sociology lecturer Mu Zheng.
China’s ageing population has been driven by a mix of factors, including rapid urbanisation and the effects of the controversial one-child policy, which was in place from 1980 to the end of 2015.
The strategy, designed to keep China’s rapid population growth under control, is estimated by the country’s government to have prevented about 400 million births since it began, though this number has been contested.
The policy played a key role in shrinking the population and means there are fewer younger people to support a growing number of elderly relatives, Mu said.
But despite easing restrictions on the size of families, Beijing has struggled to persuade couples to have more children, with birth rates hitting historic lows.
Other contributing factors include changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels that have put pressure on fertility rates, Mu said.
Beijing made further support for older people a part of the measures in its five-year economic blueprint that was announced earlier this year.
Financial help for pensioners has been a growing part of Chinese government spending. More than 53 million elderly people were receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025, according to official figures.
The Global Times noted that many people entering old age who were born between the 1950s and the 1970s have generally higher incomes compared to previous generations, stronger purchasing power and are healthier.
The dependency ratio is widely-used to measure ageing populations but it has also been questioned by some experts who argue that its scope is too limited.
Gietel-Basten said the use of the statistics risks “taking agency away” from older people – many of whom he says have been misrepresented as dependants.
It also does not take into account improvements to healthcare, he added.
